Document Details Document Type : Article In Journal  Document Title : TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF UNDER FIVE MORTALITY IN ALEXANDRIA TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF UNDER FIVE MORTALITY IN ALEXANDRIA   Document Language : English  Abstract : The aim ot this study is to analyze levels, trend and seasonal patterns of under-5 mortality in Alexandria, In order to fulfill this aim. a retrospective study IS conducted to collect recorded data about under-5 deaths and live births from 1996 to 2001 from Health Information Center and CAPMAS in Alexandria. Causes of death are categorized using the ICD-10. Several trend equations were tried to select the best fit trend equation. Seasonality is tested using the 12-month moving average method. The predicted value for under-5 mortality rates for the year 2002 IS calculated using the bestfit trend equation and the seasonal Index and compared to the actual levels to test the validity of the prediction models The study revealed a significant downward trend of U5MR PNMR and CMR while the NMR does not show significant decrease over the study period. The peak seasonal index of U5MRis in December followedby summer months, those of NMR and CMRare in summer and PNMR is mainly in winter. Maximumindex of U5MRdue to ARI is in winter while rates related to congenital malformations are in autumn whiledeaths due to perinatal conditionsare mainly in Mayand June, and external causes of injuryare mainlyin summer. Thoughthe picture is promisingspecial emphasis is still needed for ARI, congenital anomalies and perinatal conditions.  ISSN : 0307-5133  Journal Name : THE JOURNAL OF THE EGYPTIAN  Volume : 29  Issue Number : 3  Publishing Year : 1425 AH 2004 AD  Article Type : Article  Added Date : Saturday, April 21, 2012  Researchers Researcher Name (Arabic) Researcher Name (English) Researcher Type Dr Grade Email منى حسن hassan, mona Researcher Doctorate   Files File Name Type Description  32925.pdf pdf    32926.pdf pdf    32927.pdf pdf   Back To Researches Page